Monday, January 18, 2016

Dear NH GOP Primary Electorate: I understand that Donald Trump has a certain appeal. He tweaks the right people. He drives the left crazy. He says what he wants, even if he's not PC, and he seems to be having fun while doing it. But there are two good reasons NH Republicans should not support him: 1) He's not conservative and 2) he can't win the general election. Trump's conservative credentials are non-existent. Were one to rely on the Donald's own words, actions, and political donations prior to this spring when he announced his candidacy, it would be hard to conclude that he was a Republican at all, and not a Democrat. His own previous flirtation with the Presidency was not as a Republican but via the Reform Party. Yes, lately, his one-dimensional candidacy has staked out a nominally "conservative" position on immigration and he talks like a tough (albeit ill-informed) guy on national security issues. But, other than that and a few standard GOP issues that he has adopted--contra his long-held positions--there is nothing to suggest that he is politically conservative, or indeed any less a fan of big government than President Obama, Secretary Clinton, or even Senator Sanders. Indeed, on what might be his most high profile (pre-presidential run) issue--eminent domain--Trump reveals himself to have disdain for property rights and for the libertarian values most often associated with the Granite State GOP. Trump fairs no better as a potential GOP standard-bearer when we consider electability. Among all candidates of both parties and among a wide swath of various polling firms, Trump has the highest net unfavorability ratings in the field. Indeed, one of the greatest advantages the Republicans have in 2016 is the high net unfavorable ratings of the Democrat's presumptive nominee. Trump not only negates that advantage, but makes it an advantage for the Democrats. William F. Buckley famously posited that movement conservatives should always seek to elect the most conservative, electable candidate. This is easier said than done, as it always involves judgment calls. However, Donald Trump is, by almost any objective measure, both the least conservative and the least electable candidate in the GOP field. Despite its long-held and well-deserved reputation for pragmatism, the NH GOP primary voters look poised to violate the Buckley rule in spectacular fashion, by nominating the most liberal GOP nominee in decades--a nominee who stands almost no chance to win in November. Please reconsider. A vote for Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Bush, or Kasich--any of them--will give us a much better chance to win the White House in November--and to advance Republican values in doing so.